Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C2 0xc23a…3e2b other 339 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,013 (-6%) realized −$2,898 · open −$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%129W / 205L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,017now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$870
7 days+$1,048
14 days+$1,083
30 days−$423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$2,087
world 17% +$1,943
sports 13% −$419
politics 11% −$1,733
weather 9% −$805
crypto 3% −$545
tech 1% +$215
finance 1% −$7
culture 0% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +7.7% -2.6% 59% 47% +4.2%
≤30d 84 -32.5% -38.9% 36% 31% -12.4%
≤90d 334 -10.8% -19.3% 39% 32% -16.1%
all 334 -10.8% -19.3% 39% 32% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 32% -16.1%
10% -27.0% 24% -24.1%
15% -34.1% 19% -31.4%
20% -40.5% 16% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$67 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$1,017
Realized−$2,898
Unrealized−$115
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses129 / 205
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions5
Markets (closed)334 / 339
History coverage76d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 73¢ 66¢ $373 $341 −$32 (-8%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $30 $285 +$255 (+850%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 21¢ 22¢ $252 $262 +$10 (+4%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 90¢ 28¢ $372 $118 −$254 (-68%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 12¢ 1¢ $105 $11 −$94 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $145 −$82 -56%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $375 +$95 +25%
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $373 +$33 +9%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $79 +$329 +417%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $201 +$15 +7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $361 +$54 +15%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $179 +$35 +20%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $78 +$52 +66%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $276 +$38 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $464 −$23 -5%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $252 +$30 +12%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $34 −$33 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $343 +$486 +142%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $527 −$204 -39%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $550 +$312 +57%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $284 +$83 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $351 −$15 -4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $145 −$144 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $145 +$53 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$9 -18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $250 +$85 +34%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $150 +$123 +82%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $170 −$170 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $140 +$171 +122%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $350 +$26 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $120 +$11 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $227 −$222 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $121 +$78 +64%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $100 +$48 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $78 −$77 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $78 −$77 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $122 +$49 +40%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $125 −$116 -93%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $378 +$282 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $375 +$47 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $150 −$18 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $328 +$190 +58%
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? Jun 09 $247 +$28 +11%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $282 −$282 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 09 $144 −$23 -16%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $77 −$3 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $129 −$21 -16%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $114 −$110 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $343 +$119 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $403 −$84 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $383 +$45 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 SELL Under 32¢ $64 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $145 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 99¢ $471 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $378 1h
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 98¢ $406 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 99¢ $408 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 SELL Under 94¢ $216 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $201 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 19¢ $79 4h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 79¢ $375 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 98¢ $415 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 85¢ $361 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $77 15h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $183 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $214 22h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 99¢ $130 22h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 59¢ $78 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $179 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 95¢ $314 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $276 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $162 29h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $282 29h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 1¢ $34 29h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 30h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 30h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 30h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 30h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $252 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,017.22 · official $1,017.26 (match) · 937 history records