Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc23d…82c8 sports 251 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (335 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$119,777 (+16%) realized +$119,281 · open +$496
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate30%212W / 494L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,893per market
Trades / day334.7pace
Fees−$1,994est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$18,105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$23,108
other 32% +$2,006
politics 5% +$3,999
crypto 2% −$115
world 1% −$1,478
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (335 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-54.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 652 -54.7% -59.0% 25% 6% -25.5%
≤30d 706 -49.1% -54.0% 30% 8% -22.8%
≤90d 706 -49.1% -54.0% 30% 8% -22.8%
all 706 -49.1% -54.0% 30% 8% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover334.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.0% 8% -22.8%
10% -58.4% 6% -30.2%
15% ← realistic here -62.4% 4% -36.9%
20% -66.1% 3% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,151) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$251 vs −$369 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$18,105
Realized+$119,281
Unrealized+$496
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses212 / 494
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1,994
Open positions8
Markets (closed)706 / 251
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$2,893
Trades / day334.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 706 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $9,635 $9,728 +$93 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 9¢ 10¢ $2,637 $3,031 +$394 (+15%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $2,967 $2,997 +$30 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $1,220 $1,472 +$253 (+21%)
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $208 $484 +$276 (+132%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 18¢ 100¢ $51 $282 +$231 (+457%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 29¢ 100¢ $31 $107 +$76 (+245%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 3¢ 0¢ $294 $5 −$289 (-98%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 78¢ 0¢ $149 $0 −$149 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 59¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 490 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elche CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-01-20? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Cúcuta Deportivo FC vs. Fortaleza CEIF end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) Jun 17 $45 −$28 -61%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $3,479 −$3,479 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-23? Jun 17 $744 −$744 -100%
Will Dundee United FC win on 2025-12-03? Jun 17 $182 −$182 -100%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Mali win on 2025-12-22? Jun 17 $1,347 −$959 -71%
Will Girona FC vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-18? Jun 17 $1,116 −$1,116 -100%
Hornets vs. Pacers Jun 17 $0 −$22 -11761%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential E Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-11-20? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will CA Talleres win on 2026-02-09? Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce Jun 17 $32 +$106 +328%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-01-06? Jun 17 $11 −$77 -667%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $1,135 −$1,135 -100%
Athletic Club vs. Real Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $2,877 −$2,877 -100%
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-02-11? Jun 17 $594 −$594 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $628 −$628 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-12-05? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Aston Villa vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Haras El Hodood SC win on 2026-05-13? Jun 17 $7 −$9 -119%
São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $213 −$222 -104%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-01-14? Jun 17 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Jara win by 0-3%? Jun 17 $33 −$28 -85%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Jun 17 $191 −$277 -145%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gaziantep FK win on 2026-01-25? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2025-12-20? Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? Jun 17 $322 −$322 -100%
Will CA Juventud win on 2026-05-21? Jun 17 $895 −$895 -100%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CD Palestino vs. CF Universidad de Chile end in a draw? Jun 17 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín end in a draw? Jun 17 $233 −$433 -186%
Al Okhdood SC vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 17 $524 −$524 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 17 $213 −$226 -106%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-10? Jun 17 $398 −$398 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? Jun 17 $573 −$573 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-8.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Athletic Club vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $348 −$348 -100%
Will Jara win by 9-12%? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $240 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $22 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $495 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $563 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $142 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $99 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $27 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $5 5m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $922 5m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $762 5m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $447 9m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $30 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $277 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $230 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $37 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $92 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $115 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $7 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $85 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $12 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $37 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $58 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $22 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $358 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $9 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $34 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $211 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $14 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $571 22m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $555 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,105.10 · official $18,105.11 (match) · 3500 history records