Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C2 0xc23e…e419 other 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%12W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$12
politics 41% −$12
sports 7% +$47
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 134 +0.7% -8.9% 8% 4% -9.4%
all 146 -2.1% -11.4% 8% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 4% -9.4%
10% -19.9% 4% -18.1%
15% -27.6% 3% -26.0%
20% -34.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×13.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 134
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage114d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $174 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 27 $143 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $164 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $205 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 22 $327 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $173 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $206 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $627 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $305 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $165 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $185 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $280 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $205 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $167 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $149 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $189 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $327 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $153 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $166 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $156 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $157 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 04 $125 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $156 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $163 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $185 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $295 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $154 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $301 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $154 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $144 $0 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $193 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $206 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $153 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 5h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 9h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 13h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $19 25h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $19 27h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 9d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $33 10d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $31 12d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 14d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $154 20d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $154 23d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $166 23d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $166 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $143 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $143 24d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $164 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 396 history records