Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc23f…372c crypto 339 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,146 (-9%) realized −$2,146 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%186W / 153L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$51
14 days−$135
30 days−$261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$2,583
other 11% +$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -10.7% -19.2% 61% 39% -18.1%
≤30d 100 -11.7% -20.1% 57% 44% -17.9%
≤90d 187 -15.4% -23.4% 52% 43% -24.2%
all 339 -9.8% -18.4% 55% 45% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 45% -16.7%
10% -26.2% 34% -24.7%
15% -33.3% 27% -32.0%
20% -39.9% 22% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$42 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses186 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)339 / 339
History coverage175d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 339 Trades
no open positions (92 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $116 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$22 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$7 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$14 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 07 $59 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$14 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 06 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 05 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 04 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 04 $31 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 04 $41 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 03 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 02 $31 −$8 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 02 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 02 $21 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 02 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 02 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 01 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 31 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 31 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 31 $21 −$12 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 31 $21 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 31 $41 +$5 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $47 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $37 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $23 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $12 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $12 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $12 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $19 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $19 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $18 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $17 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 664 history records