Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc242…7cbe sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$108 (+4%) realized +$108 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$2
14 days−$40
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$205
other 34% −$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 50% -10.1%
≤30d 16 -18.7% -26.4% 50% 44% -7.3%
≤90d 19 -19.4% -27.1% 47% 42% -8.7%
all 20 -16.6% -24.6% 50% 45% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 45% -8.7%
10% -31.8% 35% -17.4%
15% -38.4% 30% -25.4%
20% -44.4% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$38 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage165d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $41 −$8 -18%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$53 -53%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $73 +$30 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $65 +$29 +44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $95 −$93 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$2 +72%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $461 −$115 -25%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $86 +$32 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $423 +$140 +33%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $959 +$150 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $64 −$63 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $169 +$21 +13%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $19 −$6 -33%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $3 +$2 +48%
Patriots vs. Broncos May 22 $183 −$34 -19%
Will Indiana win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jan 20 $3 +$1 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 32¢ $33 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 40¢ $46 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $103 40h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $73 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $65 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $95 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 76¢ $3 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 54¢ $2 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 61¢ $2 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 66¢ $2 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 84¢ $4 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 47¢ $2 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $319 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 41¢ $320 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $108 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $34 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 69¢ $119 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $86 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $100 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 56¢ $314 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $324 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 98¢ $299 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 74¢ $233 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 59¢ $232 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 51¢ $211 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 51¢ $211 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 44¢ $191 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records