Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C2
0xc243…5e94
world · 504 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,593 -26%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$293 · open −$127
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,320
Realized−$293
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses159 / 160
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions337
Markets (closed)319 / 504
History coverage13d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day243.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 337 History 319 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$539
14 days−$293
30 days−$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 62¢ 65¢ $320 $336 +$17 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 74¢ 89¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 91¢ 98¢ $110 $119 +$9 (+8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 92¢ 96¢ $112 $117 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? No 64¢ 62¢ $120 $116 −$4 (-3%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $109 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $104 $107 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? No 85¢ 81¢ $108 $103 −$5 (-5%)
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? No 91¢ 95¢ $98 $103 +$5 (+5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $102 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $94 $101 +$6 (+7%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 92¢ 94¢ $98 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 94¢ $73 $100 +$27 (+37%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $95 $96 +$1 (+1%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 71¢ 100¢ $69 $96 +$27 (+40%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 81¢ 82¢ $93 $94 +$2 (+2%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $94 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $86 $90 +$4 (+4%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 89¢ 98¢ $81 $89 +$8 (+10%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 84¢ 83¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $82 $88 +$7 (+8%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $82 $86 +$4 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 46¢ 62¢ $63 $84 +$21 (+34%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $78 $82 +$4 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $68 +$18 +26%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 14 $32 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $225 +$17 +7%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $222 +$24 +11%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $28 +$21 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $46 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $33 +$6 +17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $34 +$7 +22%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 14 $14 −$1 -6%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $150 +$235 +156%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$5 +49%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $12 −$8 -60%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 13 $28 +$3 +9%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 13 $18 +$5 +25%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $33 +$6 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $69 +$6 +9%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $18 +$1 +6%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $57 +$6 +11%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n Jun 13 $11 +$1 +14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $16 −$10 -61%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $21 +$20 +97%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 13 $15 −$3 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 +$10 +35%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 13 $1 $0 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 13 $51 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $143 +$12 +9%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Eva Vedder Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Caijsa Hennemann vs Julia Avdeeva Jun 13 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $46 −$22 -48%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$4 +29%
Will Heather Doran win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-electio Jun 13 $3 −$1 -47%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $99 +$18 +18%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Jun 13 $183 −$183 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 13 $65 −$65 -100%
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 27% −$17
world 24% +$308
sports 15% −$403
weather 14% +$72
politics 8% −$248
tech 7% −$93
finance 3% +$18
crypto 1% +$10
culture 1% −$67
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $4 1m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $10 13m
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 16m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 72¢ $30 25m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $4 30m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 68¢ $7 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 31m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $5 32m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 33m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 66¢ $5 52m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $5 52m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $5 52m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $3 53m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $0 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $9 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $2 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $1 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $10 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $8 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $11 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 18¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 18¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 185 +11.1% +0.5% 52% 36% -2.5%
≤30d 319 +7.9% -2.4% 50% 34% -11.8%
≤90d 319 +7.9% -2.4% 50% 34% -11.8%
all 319 +7.9% -2.4% 50% 34% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover243.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 34% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 23% -20.3%
15% -20.2% 17% -28.0%
20% -28.1% 14% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,320.16 · official $8,315.22 (match) · 3500 history records