Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C2 0xc243…22c8 sports 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,361 (+8%) realized +$1,384 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%50W / 47L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$229est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$522now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$235
7 days+$180
14 days+$1,139
30 days+$1,022
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$1,399
other 22% −$438
crypto 1% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +5.5% -4.5% 59% 53% -6.8%
≤30d 94 -4.5% -13.6% 51% 49% -3.2%
≤90d 97 -5.0% -14.0% 52% 49% -3.2%
all 97 -5.0% -14.0% 52% 49% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 49% -3.2%
10% -22.3% 36% -12.5%
15% -29.8% 31% -20.9%
20% -36.7% 22% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$68 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$522
Realized+$1,384
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses50 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$229
Open positions6
Markets (closed)97 / 103
History coverage51d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $410 $395 −$15 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $53 $39 −$14 (-26%)
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Bangladesh 35¢ 34¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $587 +$345 +59%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $786 −$781 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $38 +$29 +77%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $15 +$1 +8%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc Jun 17 $84 −$83 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $412 +$88 +21%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $82 −$39 -48%
ITF Tauste: Raquel Gonzalez Vilar vs Vaishnavi Adkar Jun 16 $292 +$108 +37%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$49 +97%
ITF Irvine: Kenzie Nguyen vs Simone Kay Jun 16 $55 −$54 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $105 +$15 +15%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $347 +$62 +18%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $200 +$60 +30%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $295 −$1 -0%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 +$16 +111%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $730 +$263 +36%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -97%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $401 +$199 +50%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $43 +$157 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $155 −$153 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $597 −$135 -23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $195 +$30 +16%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $64 −$50 -79%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $72 −$71 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $69 +$82 +119%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $108 −$107 -99%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $88 +$7 +8%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $207 +$134 +65%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $131 +$72 +55%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $52 +$28 +54%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $140 +$86 +61%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 09 $231 +$31 +13%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $910 +$178 +20%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $171 −$2 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $157 +$33 +21%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $135 +$46 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $210 +$75 +36%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 07 $315 −$117 -37%
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu Jun 07 $58 +$41 +72%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $207 +$26 +12%
Libema Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Jun 07 $84 −$5 -6%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $103 −$36 -34%
ITF Harmon: Jake Delaney vs Youssef Kadiri Hassani Jun 07 $829 +$131 +16%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $117 −$98 -83%
ITF Cuiaba: Nicolas Oliveira vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 06 $696 +$256 +37%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Marc Polmans Jun 06 $175 +$25 +14%
ITF Caserta: Federica Urgesi vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 06 $172 −$172 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $598 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $167 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $83 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 35¢ $36 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $587 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $417 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $333 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $274 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $179 5h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 68¢ $67 7h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 38¢ $38 7h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 17¢ $17 10h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 15¢ $15 10h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 35¢ $1 14h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 35¢ $3 14h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 35¢ $4 14h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 35¢ $1 14h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 35¢ $4 14h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 35¢ $4 14h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 35¢ $0 14h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 35¢ $2 14h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 35¢ $1 14h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 35¢ $1 14h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 35¢ $6 14h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 35¢ $8 14h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 48¢ $49 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $412 21h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 39¢ $16 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $522.38 · official $522.38 (match) · 653 history records