Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:17:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc245…bccb crypto 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$68 (-4%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%19W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$74
14 days−$173
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$103
weather 40% −$227
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.3% -4.7% 80% 60% -1.6%
≤30d 30 -15.9% -23.9% 57% 47% -17.3%
≤90d 30 -15.9% -23.9% 57% 47% -17.3%
all 34 -10.9% -19.3% 56% 47% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 47% -16.8%
10% -27.1% 32% -24.8%
15% -34.1% 21% -32.0%
20% -40.6% 12% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$26 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses19 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage134d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET Jun 21 $34 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $81 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $212 +$39 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $97 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $81 +$16 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $54 +$28 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$32 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $55 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$23 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 −$10 -38%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $62 −$18 -29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$5 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 10 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 8? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 7? Jun 09 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $71 +$22 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 6? Jun 07 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $60 +$27 +44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $47 +$14 +29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $31 −$14 -45%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 05 $44 +$17 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 11 $7 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 11 $15 −$2 -13%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 07 $8 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down on February 7? Feb 07 $5 +$3 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $93 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $81 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $160 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $91 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $91 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $121 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $119 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $97 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $97 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $81 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $81 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $54 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $54 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $82 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $55 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records