Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:46:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc245…6a9d crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$301 (-65%) realized −$301 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$170
crypto 32% −$125
other 31% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-58.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -9.6% -18.2% 0% 0% -24.7%
≤30d 4 -9.6% -18.2% 0% 0% -24.7%
≤90d 10 -54.5% -58.8% 0% 0% -72.4%
all 10 -54.5% -58.8% 0% 0% -72.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.8% 0% -72.4%
10% -62.8% 0% -75.1%
15% -66.4% 0% -77.5%
20% -69.7% 0% -79.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$32 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$301
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage73d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 −$1 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $103 −$22 -22%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 25 $100 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 08 $20 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$9 -93%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 07 $170 −$170 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records