Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:07:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C2 0xc246…1099 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$45
sports 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -5.9% -14.9% 60% 60% -6.9%
≤30d 10 -5.9% -14.9% 60% 60% -6.9%
≤90d 10 -5.9% -14.9% 60% 60% -6.9%
all 10 -5.9% -14.9% 60% 60% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 60% -6.9%
10% -23.0% 40% -15.8%
15% -30.5% 40% -24.0%
20% -37.3% 30% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$46 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $248 $249 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $159 +$90 +56%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $131 −$130 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $120 +$14 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 +$31 +44%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$21 +80%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $248 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $248 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $131 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $152 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 45¢ $46 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $224 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.04 · official $249.04 (match) · 26 history records