Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C2 0xc249…c235 sports 84 markets active 13d ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-6%) realized −$40 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%40W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$14
other 21% $0
tech 3% −$17
world 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +31.2% +18.7% 67% 67% -16.3%
≤90d 5 -21.3% -28.8% 40% 40% -67.0%
all 83 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 48% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 48% -15.3%
10% -24.4% 48% -23.4%
15% -31.7% 45% -30.8%
20% -38.4% 41% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses40 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage137d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $9 $10 +$2 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +106%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -44%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5 Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Game Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs Oh My God (+1.5) Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Fulham FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $8 +$5 +61%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Feb 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 07 $10 +$9 +88%
Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 07 $13 +$8 +64%
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-02-06? Feb 06 $4 +$4 +92%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 06 $4 +$3 +79%
76ers vs. Lakers Feb 06 $6 +$5 +75%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Feb 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Game Handicap: GAM (-1.5) vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (+1.5) Feb 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Feb 05 $11 +$11 +96%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5) Feb 04 $6 +$4 +75%
Game Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Feb 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Feb 04 $11 −$11 -100%
New Zealand Breakers vs. Melbourne United Feb 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (+1.5) Feb 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-4.5) Feb 04 $10 +$11 +108%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challenge Feb 03 $11 +$7 +61%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 03 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5 Feb 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Rockets vs. Pacers Feb 03 $15 +$8 +52%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 02 $7 +$3 +49%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Feb 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5 Feb 02 $9 +$3 +30%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $8 +$9 +122%
PSV vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 3.5 Feb 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Game Handicap: LNG (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Feb 01 $9 +$7 +82%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $7 −$3 -39%
Hamburger SV vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Jan 31 $14 +$14 +100%
SSC Napoli vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 Jan 31 $11 +$14 +127%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5 Jan 31 $7 +$6 +88%
Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 31 $8 +$6 +75%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $2 +$4 +194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 13d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 SELL Under 57¢ $5 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 13d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $4 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 13d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 13d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY Yes 59¢ $17 42d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 42d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 42d
Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 94d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals BUY Oh My God 37¢ $3 135d
Game Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs Oh My God (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 62¢ $10 135d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 137d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 137d
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 138d
Fulham FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $8 138d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 138d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 138d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance BUY Team WE 44¢ $6 138d
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 138d
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 138d
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 139d
Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $13 139d
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-02-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 139d
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-02-06? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 140d
76ers vs. Lakers SELL Lakers 100¢ $11 140d
76ers vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 57¢ $6 140d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports 56¢ $4 140d
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) BUY JD Gaming 42¢ $6 140d
Game Handicap: GAM (-1.5) vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (+1.5) BUY Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming 43¢ $6 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.43 · official $10.43 (match) · 143 history records