Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:31:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C2
0xc24f…81d3
weather · 583 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6,407 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,354 · open −$53
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,994
Realized−$6,354
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses464 / 232
Open positions61
Markets (closed)696 / 583
History coverage23d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day128.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 61 History 696 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,778
7 days−$6,755
14 days−$6,743
30 days−$6,354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 92¢ 99¢ $141 $153 +$12 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? No 94¢ 94¢ $139 $140 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? No 93¢ 100¢ $110 $118 +$8 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 3? No 89¢ 100¢ $102 $115 +$13 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? No 97¢ 98¢ $104 $105 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? No 96¢ 95¢ $90 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? No 92¢ 90¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $82 $84 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? No 90¢ 88¢ $85 $83 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? No 66¢ 68¢ $79 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 1? No 79¢ 100¢ $58 $74 +$16 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? No 96¢ 96¢ $73 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? No 97¢ 99¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? No 81¢ 80¢ $70 $69 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 4? No 68¢ 100¢ $45 $66 +$21 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? No 81¢ 61¢ $83 $63 −$20 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? No 69¢ 74¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? No 97¢ 96¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? No 82¢ 78¢ $55 $52 −$3 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? No 96¢ 97¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? No 75¢ 76¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? No 93¢ 93¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? No 93¢ 89¢ $51 $49 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 3? Jun 13 $102 +$13 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 1? Jun 13 $58 +$16 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 4? Jun 13 $45 +$21 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 2? Jun 13 $14 +$7 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 7? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on May 5? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on May 12? Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 13 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 8? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 4? Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 17? Jun 13 $166 −$166 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 6? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 8? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 8? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 13? Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 12? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 14? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 4? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 12? Jun 13 $114 −$114 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11? Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 16? Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 15? Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 11? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 2? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 17? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 12? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 9? Jun 13 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 2? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 5? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 8? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 29? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 7? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 6? Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 9? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 5? Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 16? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on May 17? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 28 Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 17? Jun 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on May 7? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 13? Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$423
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $12 3m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $17 3m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $17 4m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $21 6m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $17 8m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 79¢ $5 12m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $5 13m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $2 13m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $2 13m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $3 13m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 79¢ $8 13m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 79¢ $9 39m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $21 46m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $5 47m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $5 47m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $12 55m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $4 59m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 73¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 73¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 262 -61.9% -65.5% 32% 19% -62.6%
≤30d 696 -19.2% -26.9% 67% 33% -25.2%
≤90d 696 -19.2% -26.9% 67% 33% -25.2%
all 696 -19.2% -26.9% 67% 33% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover128.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 33% -25.2%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 19% -32.4%
15% -40.3% 9% -38.9%
20% -46.1% 4% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,993.92 · official $2,994.04 (match) · 3500 history records