Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:05:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C2 0xc24f…220b crypto 412 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$226 (+4%) realized +$273 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%192W / 165L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$179
politics 35% +$18
other 5% −$84
world 2% $0
sports 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +55.5% +40.7% 60% 60% +14.5%
≤30d 5 +55.5% +40.7% 60% 60% +14.5%
≤90d 357 +2.9% -6.9% 54% 51% -6.3%
all 357 +2.9% -6.9% 54% 51% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 51% -6.3%
10% -15.8% 48% -15.3%
15% -23.9% 41% -23.5%
20% -31.4% 28% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$1,461
Realized+$273
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses192 / 165
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions55
Markets (closed)357 / 412
History coverage74d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $199 $198 −$1 (-1%)
Will Glenn Ivey be the Democratic nominee for MD-04? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $112 $119 +$8 (+7%)
Will Herman Mashaba be the next mayor of Johannesburg? No 85¢ 85¢ $113 $113 −$1 (-1%)
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $109 $108 −$1 (-1%)
Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 96¢ 100¢ $81 $84 +$3 (+4%)
Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 98¢ 96¢ $82 $81 −$2 (-2%)
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? No 87¢ 92¢ $69 $73 +$4 (+5%)
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 98¢ $31 $68 +$37 (+117%)
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $65 $63 −$2 (-4%)
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 10% or more? No 84¢ 82¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 83¢ 85¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Will Anthony Garotinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 95¢ 99¢ $41 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will Josué Casimir score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 92¢ $34 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+16%)
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $42 $32 −$10 (-24%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes 67¢ 90¢ $19 $26 +$7 (+35%)
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Yes 71¢ 90¢ $19 $25 +$5 (+27%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-9%)
Will Dan Sullivan vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence? No 50¢ 40¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-19%)
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? No 78¢ 78¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gabriel Souza win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? No 92¢ 96¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? No 79¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $2 +$8 +335%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% an Jun 21 $7 +$1 +14%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $19 +$13 +68%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $11 −$4 -39%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 22 $8 +$3 +40%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 22 $15 +$6 +42%
BNB Up or Down - April 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4AM ET Apr 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 19 $12 +$4 +38%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 19 $10 +$7 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 19 $24 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 19 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2AM ET Apr 19 $27 −$4 -14%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 19 $11 +$5 +49%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 19 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8PM ET Apr 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 19 $15 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 18 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 18 $5 +$13 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 18 $12 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 18 $16 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 18 $8 +$4 +48%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 18 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 18 $3 +$13 +453%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 18 $16 +$15 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 18 $16 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 18 $4 +$18 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 18 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 18 $19 +$5 +24%
BNB Up or Down - April 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 18 $7 −$7 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 18 $12 −$12 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 18 $15 +$7 +45%
BNB Up or Down - April 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 18 $16 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 18 $32 −$4 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? BUY Yes 94¢ $32 2h
Will Herman Mashaba be the next mayor of Johannesburg? BUY No 94¢ $7 5h
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 13h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 16h
Will Cindy Holscher win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary el BUY Yes 61¢ $4 21h
MLP New York: Carolina Hogs vs Brooklyn Pickleball Team BUY Carolina Hogs 90¢ $7 22h
MLP New York: Carolina Hogs vs Brooklyn Pickleball Team BUY Carolina Hogs 90¢ $23 22h
Will Romero Rodrigues win the Governor of Paraíba election? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 22h
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? BUY Yes 10¢ $43 23h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 46h
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary electi BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5 BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2d
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY No 23¢ $4 2d
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 2d
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? BUY No 84¢ $101 2d
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY No 73¢ $62 2d
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 10% or more BUY No 84¢ $60 2d
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY No 72¢ $12 3d
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY No 75¢ $31 3d
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY No 75¢ $14 3d
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY No 75¢ $7 3d
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY No 75¢ $21 3d
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY No 75¢ $9 3d
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY Yes 25¢ $56 3d
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5 BUY No 79¢ $11 3d
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 3d
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial electio BUY Yes 64¢ $4 3d
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 4d
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 45¢ $32 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,460.89 · official $1,460.89 (match) · 1287 history records