Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C2 0xc250…8d6e crypto 784 markets active 1h ago coverage 624d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$54,387 (-7%) realized −$54,978 · open +$591
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate78%598W / 166L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,038per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7,517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days−$797
14 days−$3,140
30 days−$14,157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$37,364
politics 18% −$19,733
other 6% +$3,401
world 3% −$1,600
finance 1% +$829
culture 1% +$167
sports 0% +$300
tech 0% −$360
economics 0% −$1,933
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -29.8% -36.5% 57% 50% -26.6%
≤30d 96 -25.0% -32.2% 59% 45% -38.3%
≤90d 379 -5.2% -14.3% 77% 49% -14.4%
all 764 -6.0% -15.0% 78% 47% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 47% -15.9%
10% -23.1% 19% -24.0%
15% -30.5% 7% -31.3%
20% -37.4% 3% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$966) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$896 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

624d coverage
Net worth$7,517
Realized−$54,978
Unrealized+$591
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses598 / 166
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions20
Markets (closed)764 / 784
History coverage624d
Avg bet$1,038
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 764 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 84¢ 85¢ $1,200 $1,209 +$8 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 75¢ 96¢ $748 $958 +$210 (+28%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 82¢ 97¢ $596 $706 +$110 (+18%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 87¢ 85¢ $660 $649 −$10 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 72¢ 88¢ $521 $634 +$113 (+22%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 85¢ 100¢ $496 $579 +$83 (+17%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 77¢ 98¢ $281 $359 +$78 (+28%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? No 78¢ 84¢ $327 $349 +$22 (+7%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,230 Week of June 22 2026? No 63¢ 76¢ $226 $270 +$43 (+19%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 98¢ $226 $269 +$43 (+19%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,320 Week of June 22 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $242 $246 +$4 (+1%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,260 Week of June 22 2026? No 70¢ 78¢ $190 $214 +$24 (+13%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $182 $196 +$14 (+8%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $184 $195 +$11 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? No 81¢ 98¢ $155 $188 +$33 (+22%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? No 83¢ 97¢ $157 $184 +$27 (+17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Yes 82¢ 69¢ $209 $177 −$32 (-15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28? No 91¢ 96¢ $91 $96 +$4 (+5%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,290 Week of June 22 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+6%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 53¢ 2¢ $204 $7 −$197 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 24 $568 +$120 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $859 +$154 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? Jun 22 $123 +$21 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 21 $133 −$133 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Jun 21 $131 −$131 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Jun 21 $247 −$247 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 21 $430 −$430 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $430 −$430 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $90 +$10 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $230 +$20 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $103 +$17 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $560 +$440 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $122 +$18 +15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $155 +$45 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $227 −$227 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1,346 −$629 -47%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $699 −$699 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $820 −$820 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $294 +$69 +23%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $380 +$80 +21%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $136 +$14 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $256 +$36 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $134 +$58 +43%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 15 $24 +$26 +110%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $96 +$94 +99%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $343 +$121 +35%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 12 $251 +$23 +9%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $53 +$3 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $98 +$12 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $264 +$29 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $86 +$24 +28%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $453 −$340 -75%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $99 −$88 -89%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $88 +$12 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $87 +$13 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $470 +$30 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 09 $753 +$137 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 06 $974 +$216 +22%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 June 1-7? Jun 06 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 06 $393 −$393 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 06 $630 −$630 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June? Jun 06 $1,238 −$1,238 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? Jun 06 $1,188 −$1,188 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,320 Week of June 22 20 BUY No 85¢ $62 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,320 Week of June 22 20 BUY No 84¢ $182 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,290 Week of June 22 20 BUY No 80¢ $32 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,260 Week of June 22 20 BUY No 71¢ $108 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,260 Week of June 22 20 BUY No 68¢ $84 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,230 Week of June 22 20 BUY No 63¢ $229 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $688 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? BUY No 85¢ $172 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 83¢ $84 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 82¢ $125 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28? BUY No 91¢ $92 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? BUY No 72¢ $160 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? BUY No 81¢ $157 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 82¢ $212 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 69¢ $211 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 86¢ $523 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 62¢ $111 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $90 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY No 90¢ $72 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY No 90¢ $18 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $92 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $139 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 82¢ $415 6d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 8d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $189 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 84¢ $109 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 84¢ $107 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 84¢ $107 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? BUY No 85¢ $69 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? BUY No 84¢ $55 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,516.89 · official $7,516.91 (match) · 2749 history records