Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:25:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc250…4faf world 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$210 (-16%) realized −$162 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%24W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days−$160
14 days−$166
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$154
crypto 29% −$131
sports 17% −$37
other 8% −$10
tech 4% +$6
politics 3% −$11
finance 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -31.7% -38.2% 43% 36% -46.3%
≤30d 36 -28.7% -35.5% 39% 36% -37.6%
≤90d 60 -33.8% -40.1% 40% 35% -36.8%
all 60 -33.8% -40.1% 40% 35% -36.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 35% -36.8%
10% -45.8% 28% -42.8%
15% -51.1% 22% -48.3%
20% -55.9% 13% -53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized−$162
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses24 / 36
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)60 / 75
History coverage54d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 86¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 32¢ $75 $47 −$28 (-37%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+4%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 61¢ 57¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-6%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 58¢ 90¢ $16 $25 +$9 (+56%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 34¢ $29 $16 −$13 (-44%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 33¢ 20¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-39%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 7¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-39%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 34¢ 18¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-49%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $37 +$11 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$37 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$1 +2%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $15 +$5 +33%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$15 +150%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +64%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $15 −$10 -64%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $4 +$2 +46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $36 −$16 -44%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $19 +$3 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $15 +$4 +30%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in June? Jun 04 $23 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $19 +$7 +40%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, Jun 01 $2 −$2 -81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 -3%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May? May 29 $15 +$18 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +137%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $13 +$5 +38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $16 −$2 -15%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gr May 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs Tricksters (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Gro May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? May 25 $25 +$8 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 3 Winner May 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $1 $0 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $8 −$5 -64%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 15 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 14 $21 −$15 -71%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17? May 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $21 −$19 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 61¢ $28 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $48 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $75 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $21 4d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 4d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $25 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $16 6d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.22 · official $281.22 (match) · 162 history records