Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:23:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc250…e5f6 world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 33L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$1
other 20% $0
politics 11% +$4
crypto 7% +$1
tech 5% $0
sports 3% $0
weather 2% +$3
culture 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.2% -8.4% 75% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.5%
all 53 +2.6% -7.2% 38% 6% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 6% -9.1%
10% -16.1% 4% -17.8%
15% -24.2% 4% -25.7%
20% -31.6% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage473d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $65 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $76 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $17 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $32 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $17 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $69 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 26 $19 −$3 -14%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 22 $1 $0 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? May 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C May 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1? May 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will another country be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Gra May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio May 06 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days May 06 $17 $0 +1%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 28 $17 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? Apr 07 $4 $0 -1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Apr 01 $2 +$2 +125%
Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Mar 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 28? Mar 29 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Arkansas win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $19 $0 -0%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Mar 27 $20 −$1 -6%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Mar 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 25 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23? Mar 24 $20 $0 +2%
Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Ha Mar 22 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $14 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $17 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $7 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $9 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $22 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $11 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $22 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $10 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $36 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.76 · official $32.76 (match) · 168 history records