Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C2 0xc251…989e other 24 markets active 3h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$4 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$5
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$56
sports 6% +$25
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -65.6% -68.9% 25% 25% +11.7%
≤30d 20 -39.6% -45.4% 40% 40% -8.0%
≤90d 20 -39.6% -45.4% 40% 40% -8.0%
all 20 -39.6% -45.4% 40% 40% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.4% 40% -8.0%
10% -50.6% 40% -16.8%
15% -55.4% 30% -24.8%
20% -59.7% 10% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$19 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage14d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $100 $142 +$42 (+43%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 22¢ $40 $28 −$12 (-30%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 34¢ $60 $28 −$32 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $101 −$39 -38%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $0 $0 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$48 +48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $41 +$19 +48%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$52 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $91 −$36 -40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$27 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $60 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 33¢ $60 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $26 6d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 6d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $20 6d
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 8d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 46¢ $17 8d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 8d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 71¢ $14 11d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 11d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 11d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $71 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $95 12d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 43¢ $54 12d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $91 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $6 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.65 · official $239.75 · 55 history records