Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:42:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C2 0xc251…a5d3 sports 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$339 (+5%) realized +$491 · open −$152
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%75W / 56L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$803now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$121
14 days+$73
30 days+$772
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$289
other 36% +$113
crypto 7% −$111
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +78.4% +61.4% 100% 100% +71.2%
≤30d 33 +47.5% +33.4% 70% 64% +19.0%
≤90d 129 -2.6% -11.8% 58% 56% -0.5%
all 131 -4.0% -13.2% 57% 55% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 55% -2.6%
10% -21.5% 51% -11.9%
15% -29.1% 35% -20.4%
20% -36.0% 20% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$26 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$803
Realized+$491
Unrealized−$152
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses75 / 56
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions14
Markets (closed)131 / 145
History coverage102d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 76¢ $284 $280 −$4 (-1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 61¢ $132 $133 +$1 (+1%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 87¢ 84¢ $67 $65 −$2 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 24¢ $161 $62 −$99 (-62%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 83¢ 90¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Over 80¢ 80¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-1%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+12%)
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia? Yes 32¢ 20¢ $35 $21 −$14 (-39%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 49¢ 46¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 65¢ $23 $3 −$20 (-87%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 50¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-98%)
Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Eala 68¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Malaga CF achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026- Jun 20 $40 +$72 +180%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Marc-Andrea H Jun 20 $44 +$14 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 +$4 +27%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $17 +$4 +24%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 18 $21 +$27 +128%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 15 $49 −$48 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 15 $53 −$16 -29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $33 +$16 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $40 +$11 +27%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $8 +$93 +1132%
Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 06 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 04 $107 +$4 +4%
Will Bibisara Assaubayeva win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 04 $82 +$135 +165%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $18 +$16 +90%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 02 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $16 +$17 +106%
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $144 +$23 +16%
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $8 +$4 +54%
Set Handicap: Cirstea (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) May 30 $8 −$8 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 30 $9 +$4 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $56 +$3 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $156 −$155 -100%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $8 −$8 -97%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Tien (+2.5) May 29 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? May 28 $108 −$5 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $95 +$27 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $42 +$15 +36%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? May 28 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $8 −$8 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 26 $1,074 +$642 +60%
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5) May 25 $18 +$4 +23%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Blinkova vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 24 $9 +$3 +34%
Set Handicap: Mboko (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) May 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Set Handicap: Comesana (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) May 22 $8 −$8 -99%
Set Handicap: Michelsen (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) May 21 $15 +$5 +36%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $17 +$12 +67%
Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5) May 20 $8 −$8 -99%
Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) May 20 $9 +$6 +65%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien May 20 $10 +$17 +167%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Xinyu Wang vs Lois Boisson May 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 17 $26 +$5 +17%
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $34 −$17 -50%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $11 +$8 +67%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $16 +$4 +24%
Will CD Oriente Petrolero vs. Club Guabirá end in a draw? May 15 $9 +$4 +44%
Bradford City AFC vs. Bolton Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5 May 15 $12 +$6 +50%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-16? May 14 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa win on 2026-05-16? May 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi May 14 $37 +$14 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $224 1h
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia? BUY Yes 32¢ $36 20h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $43 20h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $41 20h
Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 68¢ $9 21h
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $62 21h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Marc-Andrea H BUY Zachary Svajda 75¢ $44 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $17 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 83¢ $51 4d
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 43¢ $21 4d
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) BUY Majchrzak 62¢ $49 7d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $76 7d
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $134 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $67 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 67¢ $33 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 78¢ $40 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 70¢ $53 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 69¢ $13 19d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 78¢ $13 19d
Will Malaga CF achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026- BUY Yes 35¢ $40 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 52¢ $18 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 20d
Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026? BUY No 52¢ $10 20d
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) BUY Arnaldi 66¢ $15 21d
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 87¢ $125 22d
Set Handicap: Cirstea (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) BUY Wang 40¢ $8 22d
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? BUY No 71¢ $9 23d
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana SELL Matteo Berrettini 64¢ $59 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $803.23 · official $803.24 (match) · 265 history records