Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:47:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C2
0xc254…3f73
world · 99 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
+$140,171 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$57,697 · open +$10,275
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$102,120
Realized+$57,697
Unrealized+$10,275
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses63 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)89 / 99
History coverage106d
Avg bet$15,410
Trades / day31.5
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 10 History 89 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4,094
30 days+$988
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 76¢ 90¢ $53,056 $62,650 +$9,594 (+18%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $30,959 $31,337 +$378 (+1%)
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $2,466 $2,509 +$43 (+2%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 70¢ 81¢ $1,750 $2,037 +$287 (+16%)
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $1,765 $1,799 +$34 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 78¢ 80¢ $780 $795 +$15 (+2%)
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 72¢ $567 $526 −$42 (-7%)
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $252 $252 −$0 (-0%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $250 $215 −$35 (-14%)
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 06 $9,935 +$35 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $348 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1,674 −$1,324 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $2,829 −$2,328 -82%
Will voter turnout be between 55% and 60% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 05 $3,974 +$33 +1%
Will voter turnout be at least 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral election? Jun 05 $4,714 +$72 +2%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 05 $5,093 +$89 +2%
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 05 $12,823 +$111 +1%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 05 $19,229 +$19 +0%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by between 20 Jun 05 $303 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party win 11 upper-level local government races? Jun 05 $114 +$6 +5%
Will the Democratic Party win 12 upper-level local government races? Jun 05 $440 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party win 15 upper-level local government races? Jun 05 $492 +$99 +20%
Will the Democratic Party win 10 or fewer upper-level local government Jun 05 $1,887 +$21 +1%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $47,053 +$6,989 +15%
Will the People Power Party win 5 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 04 $1,731 +$24 +1%
Will Wi Seong-gon win the 2026 Jeju Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 04 $103 +$4 +4%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $3,371 +$224 +7%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $498 −$446 -90%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $220 −$219 -100%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 03 $18,450 +$517 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $12,444 +$163 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 26 $65,793 +$1,447 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $5,558 −$2,210 -40%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $2,342 −$2,342 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $1,963 +$33 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $4,447 +$229 +5%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 01 $8,340 +$1,053 +13%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $11,416 +$502 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 20 $16,152 +$1,001 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 17 $6,147 +$782 +13%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? Apr 13 $7,450 +$550 +7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $5,875 +$266 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $469 +$2 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $25,333 −$7,075 -28%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 08 $8,733 −$5,546 -64%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $1,154 −$798 -69%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 08 $5,601 +$3,423 +61%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $24,802 +$244 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 07 $12,348 −$2,570 -21%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $69,449 −$26,361 -38%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $83,261 −$41,945 -50%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 07 $6,859 −$516 -8%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 07 $1,482 −$542 -37%
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Apr 07 $22 −$21 -95%
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 05 $367 +$25 +7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 04 $157 −$26 -17%
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? Apr 01 $15 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 80% +$12,418
politics 9% +$4,952
sports 8% −$4,783
weather 1% −$3,634
other 1% +$10,650
tech 1% +$48,327
culture 0% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $13 5h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 5h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 5h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 6h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 6h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $110 6h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 6h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $79 6h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 6h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 6h
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2,236 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $196 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9,850 3d
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $101 4d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $90 5d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $200 5d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $100 5d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $78 5d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $196 5d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $164 5d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $42 5d
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $127 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $63 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $395 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $4,880 6d
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $50 6d
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $33 6d
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamb BUY Yes 100¢ $18 6d
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senat BUY Yes 97¢ $1 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 28 -18.6% -26.4% 75% 7% -9.1%
≤90d 68 -13.1% -21.3% 66% 10% -10.7%
all 89 -3.8% -13.0% 71% 13% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 13% -5.7%
10% -21.3% 6% -14.7%
15% ← realistic here -28.9% 4% -23.0%
20% -35.9% 4% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102,119.86 · official $102,119.52 (match) · 3500 history records