Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc255…84ad weather 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate100%20W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 46% $0
crypto 30% $0
tech 11% $0
other 4% $0
world 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 20 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 5% -9.3%
10% -17.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses20 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage182d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 2? Jun 01 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on May 25? May 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on April 8? Apr 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on April 1? Apr 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Apr 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 31 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 25? Mar 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 64-65°F on March 18? Mar 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on March 1? Mar 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this Mar 01 $6 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 09 $18 $0 +2%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sydney Sweeney be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Jan 23 $3 $0 +1%
Will Lucy Liu be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards Jan 23 $5 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 20 $1 $0 +11%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 20 $105 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $64 24d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $27 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $44 67d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $35 80d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $41 86d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $24 93d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 64-65°F on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $26 100d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? BUY No 99¢ $9 109d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $20 109d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $16 115d
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on March 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 118d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 120d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this BUY No 100¢ $6 132d
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 142d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 160d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 160d
Will Sydney Sweeney be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy BUY No 99¢ $3 170d
Will Lucy Liu be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards BUY No 100¢ $5 170d
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 179d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 181d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.14 · official $167.14 (match) · 38 history records