Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C2 0xc255…b0c3 politics 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 902d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$610 (+49%) realized +$616 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% +$516
crypto 20% +$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+38.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +62.1% +46.7% 100% 100% +46.7%
≤30d 1 +62.1% +46.7% 100% 100% +46.7%
≤90d 2 +52.1% +37.6% 100% 100% +36.8%
all 8 +52.8% +38.3% 62% 62% +36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.3% 62% +36.7%
10% +25.1% 50% +23.6%
15% +13.0% 50% +11.7%
20% +1.9% 38% +0.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$26 · ×5.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.86 per $1 lost it wins $8.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

902d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$616
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage902d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 44¢ 39¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 22 $84 +$52 +62%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $100 +$42 +42%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Dec 15 $290 −$34 -12%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 07 $280 +$50 +18%
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Nov 29 $30 $0 -1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Nov 25 $150 +$410 +274%
Will BTC hit $50,000 by Jan 31? Jan 22 $154 +$129 +84%
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? Jan 09 $98 −$43 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 99¢ $52 21h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 57¢ $31 24h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 43¢ $0 24h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 45¢ $84 24h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 27¢ $53 2d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 98¢ $142 71d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 74d
Georgescu banned from Romania election? SELL Yes 41¢ $257 555d
Georgescu banned from Romania election? BUY Yes 46¢ $290 560d
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 13¢ $127 563d
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 14¢ $163 563d
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $18 564d
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 568d
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $62 570d
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 570d
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $30 570d
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 571d
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 571d
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 571d
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $22 575d
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? BUY Yes 7¢ $50 575d
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 61¢ $560 575d
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 577d
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 577d
Will BTC hit $50,000 by Jan 31? SELL No 97¢ $283 882d
Will BTC hit $50,000 by Jan 31? BUY No 43¢ $54 895d
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? SELL No 10¢ $55 895d
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? BUY No 17¢ $8 901d
Will BTC hit $50,000 by Jan 31? BUY No 60¢ $100 901d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.39 · official $44.34 (match) · 31 history records