Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:03:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C2 0xc256…767f other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+5%) realized +$3 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$10
world 15% +$4
crypto 8% −$10
sports 8% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +13.8% +2.9% 71% 71% -6.9%
≤30d 7 +13.8% +2.9% 71% 71% -6.9%
≤90d 7 +13.8% +2.9% 71% 71% -6.9%
all 7 +13.8% +2.9% 71% 71% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 71% -6.9%
10% -6.9% 57% -15.8%
15% -15.9% 57% -23.9%
20% -24.1% 43% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$4 +36%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 28 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +114%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +62%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$22 +71%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 11m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 44m
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 1h
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 38¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.98 · official $108.98 (match) · 14 history records