Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:08:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C2
0xc257…d412
other · 39 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage390d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 0 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $34 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $34 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $15 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $22 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $2 $0 -2%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 01 $6 $0 +3%
MicroStrategy purchases >10000 BTC June 3-9? Jun 11 $12 $0 +4%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will FC Porto win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files? Jun 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 06 $22 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 04 $4 $0 -0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio May 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? May 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 28 $25 $0 +2%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend? May 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 23–30? May 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 60°F or below on May 23? May 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will OG Anunoby Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 20 $27 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 29% $0
other 26% $0
politics 19% +$1
culture 7% $0
weather 6% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 35m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $31 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $34 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 51¢ $14 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 51¢ $2 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $15 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $8 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $26 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $18 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $16 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $22 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 323d
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 98¢ $6 346d
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? BUY No 94¢ $2 352d
Will Oracle buy TikTok? SELL No 98¢ $10 366d
MicroStrategy purchases >10000 BTC June 3-9? SELL No 100¢ $10 368d
MicroStrategy purchases >10000 BTC June 3-9? BUY No 96¢ $12 368d
Will FC Porto win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $13 368d
Will FC Porto win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $13 369d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 97¢ $13 369d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 39 +0.4% -9.1% 36% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records