Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc259…be4e world 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+1%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate28%25W / 63L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$47
14 days+$45
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$46
other 24% −$8
politics 14% −$1
sports 12% −$4
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +37.3% +24.3% 29% 29% +13.1%
≤30d 27 +10.4% -0.1% 37% 11% -5.3%
≤90d 79 +3.0% -6.8% 25% 4% -8.2%
all 88 +0.1% -9.4% 28% 6% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 6% -8.6%
10% -18.1% 5% -17.3%
15% -26.0% 2% -25.3%
20% -33.3% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses25 / 63
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage523d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $97 −$2 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $20 +$48 +240%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 −$1 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $27 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $38 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $34 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $67 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $72 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $84 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $4 $0 +5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $42 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $18 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $26 +$4 +18%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $122 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $108 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $37 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $69 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $36 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $100 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $109 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $68 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 78¢ $49 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 78¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $26 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $33 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 85¢ $68 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $8 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $14 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $14 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $14 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.13 · official $30.13 (match) · 361 history records