Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:31:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc25d…6e0c world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 25L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$5
other 20% −$1
politics 12% $0
economics 6% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.6% -11.9% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 7% -8.8%
all 37 -1.5% -10.9% 32% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 5% -9.1%
10% -19.4% 0% -17.8%
15% -27.2% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage275d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $4 $0 -10%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $35 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $66 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $32 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $120 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $63 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $26 +$4 +16%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 24 $23 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 17 $3 −$1 -31%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $1 $0 -9%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 02 $1 $0 -17%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Oct 02 $1 $0 -12%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 -9%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 +14%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $2 $0 -2%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 26 $21 $0 -2%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 26 $24 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $4 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $23 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 24 $25 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 24 $25 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 23 $28 $0 -1%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 23 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $35 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $31 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $35 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $35 38h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $31 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $28 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $8 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $24 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $3 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $3 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $33 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $33 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $3 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $7 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.20 · official $35.00 (match) · 231 history records