Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C2 0xc260…c456 crypto 564 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$364 (-4%) realized −$367 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate39%220W / 343L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day96.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days−$230
14 days−$254
30 days−$431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$428
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 196 -16.2% -24.2% 40% 21% -14.8%
≤30d 563 -11.5% -19.9% 39% 27% -13.8%
≤90d 563 -11.5% -19.9% 39% 27% -13.8%
all 563 -11.5% -19.9% 39% 27% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 27% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 15% -22.1%
15% -34.6% 12% -29.6%
20% -41.0% 10% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$367
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses220 / 343
Open positions1
Markets (closed)563 / 564
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day96.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 563 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 60¢ 54¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 38¢ 46¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $75 −$35 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $123 −$31 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $205 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $63 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $137 −$19 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$6 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $39 −$9 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$8 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$13 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$6 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$8 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$8 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$20 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.47 · official $38.26 (match) · 3500 history records