Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C2 0xc263…6c0a sports 218 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-3%) realized −$41 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate66%138W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$20
14 days−$118
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$49
other 12% +$10
crypto 8% −$20
world 8% −$8
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -2.6% -11.9% 66% 55% -12.9%
≤30d 210 -2.2% -11.5% 66% 50% -14.1%
≤90d 210 -2.2% -11.5% 66% 50% -14.1%
all 210 -2.2% -11.5% 66% 50% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 50% -14.1%
10% -20.0% 36% -22.4%
15% -27.7% 28% -29.9%
20% -34.8% 19% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses138 / 72
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions8
Markets (closed)210 / 218
History coverage23d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 73¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 64¢ 80¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 86¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? No 78¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 83¢ 83¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 93¢ 78¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +58%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$6 +61%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $71 −$5 -7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +54%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -93%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$3 -53%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -69%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$3 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $5 +$10 +186%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $5 1m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $5 11m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 73¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $5 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $5 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $5 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $5 14h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $5 15h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $5 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $16 15h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $5 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.09 · official $43.06 (match) · 559 history records