Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C2 0xc264…216e sports 591 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$56 (-2%) realized −$55 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%327W / 256L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$9
14 days+$10
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$56
crypto 19% −$35
other 18% −$8
world 3% +$6
finance 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -50.6% -55.3% 22% 22% -16.8%
≤30d 58 -26.7% -33.7% 48% 43% -12.1%
≤90d 583 -8.9% -17.6% 56% 46% -12.6%
all 583 -8.9% -17.6% 56% 46% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 46% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 30% -20.9%
15% -32.6% 21% -28.6%
20% -39.2% 14% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$55
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses327 / 256
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions8
Markets (closed)583 / 591
History coverage63d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 583 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 32¢ 58¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+83%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 53¢ 80¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+51%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? No 20¢ 30¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+50%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 36¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 49¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-56%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? No 10¢ 2¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +213%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -17%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -58%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 13 $19 −$1 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$2 +37%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $8 +$2 +33%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? Jun 04 $8 +$2 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $7 +$3 +48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 03 $4 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $3 +$4 +112%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 03 $6 +$5 +76%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 01 $7 −$6 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $7 +$3 +46%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 01 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? May 31 $6 −$4 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? May 30 $6 −$3 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 30 $8 −$4 -57%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? May 30 $4 −$3 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $7 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 27 $4 −$2 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 27 $3 $0 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? May 24 $3 $0 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 24 $4 $0 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $3 +$2 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 22 $3 −$2 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 44¢ $3 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 48¢ $3 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 20¢ $3 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 89¢ $6 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 10¢ $3 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 26¢ $3 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 3¢ $1 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 4¢ $1 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $4 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? SELL No 4¢ $1 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 9¢ $3 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 45h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 26¢ $4 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL No 9¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 10¢ $3 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL No 11¢ $3 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 12¢ $3 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 66¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.94 · official $22.94 (match) · 1974 history records