Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:57:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

C2 0xc268…db27 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$953 (+524%) realized +$956 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +260% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +213% what you keep after slip

Net edge+213%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown3%max

Avg bet$45per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+226.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+260.5%	+226.1%	33%	33%	+646.2%
≤30d	3	+260.5%	+226.1%	33%	33%	+646.2%
≤90d	3	+260.5%	+226.1%	33%	33%	+646.2%
all	3	+260.5%	+226.1%	33%	33%	+646.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+226.1%	33%	+646.2%
10%	+194.9%	33%	+574.8%
15%	+166.4%	33%	+509.6%
20%	+140.3%	33%	+449.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +725% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +260% · $-wt +725% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$981 vs −$16 · ×63.07 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×31.53 per $1 lost it wins $31.53

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$46

Realized+$956

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$45

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown3%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$49	$46	−$3 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$100	+$981	+981%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan?	Jun 17	$12	−$12	-97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway?	Jun 16	$20	−$19	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	2¢	$50	1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan?	BUY Yes	1¢	$12	9h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	9¢	$100	11h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway?	BUY Yes	11¢	$20	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.81 · official $45.81 (match) · 5 history records