Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:31:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc26a…b715 sports 597 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,390 (-8%) realized −$9,380 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%169W / 426L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$3,290est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,183
7 days−$4,185
14 days−$6,514
30 days−$9,935
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$13,598
crypto 1% +$30
other 0% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -14.5% -22.7% 25% 24% -24.2%
≤30d 293 -18.2% -26.0% 24% 23% -22.3%
≤90d 595 -12.2% -20.5% 28% 28% -19.6%
all 595 -12.2% -20.5% 28% 28% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 28% -19.6%
10% -28.1% 27% -27.3%
15% -35.1% 26% -34.3%
20% -41.4% 26% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$370 vs −$178 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$9,380
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses169 / 426
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$3,290
Open positions2
Markets (closed)595 / 597
History coverage75d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 595 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Ethan Quinn 11¢ 10¢ $200 $173 −$27 (-14%)
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Facundo Acosta 33¢ 58¢ $23 $41 +$18 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $198 −$193 -97%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 17 $441 −$120 -27%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $717 −$161 -22%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $610 +$70 +12%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva Jun 17 $245 −$240 -98%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $132 −$128 -97%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 17 $195 −$190 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $232 +$798 +344%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $232 −$226 -98%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $232 −$228 -98%
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $232 −$227 -98%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $153 +$79 +52%
ITF Tauste: Raquel Gonzalez Vilar vs Vaishnavi Adkar Jun 16 $408 −$346 -85%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $236 −$230 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $233 +$502 +216%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $232 −$226 -97%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $232 −$227 -98%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $232 −$226 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $221 −$216 -98%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $254 −$248 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 16 $154 −$150 -98%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 16 $297 −$297 -100%
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp Jun 16 $289 −$289 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Luiza Fullana vs Carolina Alves Jun 16 $113 −$113 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 16 $508 −$345 -68%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 16 $395 −$395 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 16 $516 −$516 -100%
Cattolica: Alexander Vasilev vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 16 $222 −$222 -100%
Joventut vs. Saski Baskonia Jun 16 $231 −$231 -100%
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Braden Shick Jun 16 $282 −$244 -86%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 16 $222 −$222 -100%
ITF Martos: Dan Added vs Rafael Izquierdo Luque Jun 16 $398 −$398 -100%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 16 $232 −$232 -100%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan Jun 16 $230 −$230 -100%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $324 −$324 -100%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 16 $234 −$234 -100%
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Jun 16 $234 −$234 -100%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andres Martin Jun 16 $307 −$307 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 16 $205 −$205 -100%
Tyler: Landon Ardila vs Timo Legout Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 16 $416 −$416 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 16 $232 −$232 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 16 $222 −$222 -100%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 16 $311 −$311 -100%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering Jun 16 $442 −$442 -100%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 16 $444 −$444 -100%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Diego Dedura-Palomero Jun 16 $344 −$344 -100%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Santiago De La Fuente Jun 16 $222 −$222 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 11¢ $205 8m
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Facundo Acosta 33¢ $24 20m
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska SELL Florian Broska 37¢ $736 25m
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Florian Broska 10¢ $205 1h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Fabian Marozsan 7¢ $198 1h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Jazmin Ortenzi 15¢ $205 3h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 8¢ $123 15h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova SELL Juan Estevez 93¢ $826 15h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova BUY Juan Estevez 35¢ $318 15h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Nicolas Kicker 43¢ $1 15h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 30¢ $204 16h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 24¢ $10 16h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 42¢ $533 17h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 39¢ $316 17h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 37¢ $186 17h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 23¢ $87 18h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 21¢ $66 18h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea SELL Arthur Gea 36¢ $502 18h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea SELL Arthur Gea 52¢ $153 18h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 26¢ $457 19h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva BUY Maxim Mrva 27¢ $245 20h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 7¢ $132 20h
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Mees Rottgering 5¢ $195 20h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff SELL Paula Badosa 86¢ $1,030 21h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 19¢ $232 22h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 21¢ $232 24h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 32¢ $232 26h
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernando Escurra 25¢ $232 38h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Samuel Heredia 41¢ $232 38h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 26¢ $153 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.64 · official $206.68 · 1329 history records