Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C2 0xc26c…d532 other 21 markets active 4d ago coverage 226d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9,522 (-77%) realized −$9,950 · open +$428
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$590per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$2,777now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,050
14 days−$1,050
30 days−$1,050
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$5,000
politics 31% −$3,900
other 28% −$622
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 10 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$995 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$2,777
Realized−$9,950
Unrealized+$428
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 10
Open positions11
Markets (closed)10 / 21
History coverage226d
Avg bet$590
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 3¢ 27¢ $200 $2,087 +$1,887 (+943%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $250 $235 −$15 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $250 $215 −$35 (-14%)
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $199 $116 −$83 (-42%)
Will JT Poston win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $200 $13 −$187 (-94%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $100 $12 −$88 (-88%)
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $200 $4 −$196 (-98%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $500 $3 −$497 (-99%)
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $100 $3 −$97 (-97%)
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $250 $3 −$247 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $257 −$250 -97%
Will Adam Scott win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $309 −$300 -97%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 11 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 05 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 04 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $102 3d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 3d
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 3d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $257 3d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $257 3d
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 3d
Will Adam Scott win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 3d
Will JT Poston win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 3d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 8¢ $514 3d
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $206 3d
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 3d
Will Jason Day win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 3d
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $309 3d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $206 3d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $257 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $257 3d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $2,000 162d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,500 162d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,500 162d
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 BUY No 6¢ $1,000 229d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 8¢ $250 229d
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 BUY Yes 17¢ $300 229d
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 BUY No 17¢ $1,300 229d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 8¢ $50 229d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 8¢ $1,000 229d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,777.37 · official $2,777.37 (match) · 30 history records