Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:12:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc26e…a76d other 1725 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1720W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$11
sports 47% +$4
world 1% −$7
tech 0% −$5
politics 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 359 -0.1% -9.6% 100% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1138 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 1723 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.5%
all 1723 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1720 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1723 / 1725
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1723 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marin Cilic advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FOKUS (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) UCAM Esports Club 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nakashima vs. Jones: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Endrick: 3+ shots on target Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Bruno Guimarães: 3+ goals + assists Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Mandatory (-2.5) vs Beşiktaş Esports (+2.5) Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fenerbahçe Beko win Turkey BSL? Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
KPL Indo Nepal T20: RML Sports Academy India vs Chinnamasta Lions - Co Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Coppa il Mondo T10: Rising Star Verola vs Cividate - Team Top Batter D Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Wimbledon ATP: Completed Match: Taylor Fritz vs Jack Draper Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Muller vs. Paul: Set 3 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Mochizuki vs. Basing: Set 3 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E6 S9? Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
ECS Bulgaria: Pak Falcon CC Vihren vs Young Bulgarian Stars Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
AS FAR to score first vs. UnionTouargaSports? Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ shots on target Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Shoulder to shoulder" during the Panama vs En Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will "Trillion" or "Trillionaire" be in the headlines this week? Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: METANOIA WOLVES (-3.5) vs Guara Esports (+3.5) Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Fluxo (-3.5) vs UNO MILLE (+3.5) Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: UNO MILLE (-6.5) vs Fluxo (+6.5) Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "History" during the South Africa vs Canada FI Jun 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Sub" or "Substitution" 10+ times during the S Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: AC Goianiense 2 - 0 AA Ponte Preta? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Equalize" or "Equalizer" during the South Afr Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Kawkab AC: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wydad Athletic Club vs. Olympic Dcheira end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Snake" during Love Island E22? Jun 28 $5 $0 +1%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India - Team Top Batter Irelan Jun 28 $5 $0 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Atreides (-9.5) vs Donstu Esports (+9.5) Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Honer vs Akli Jun 28 $5 $0 +2%
Game Handicap: WOL (-2.5) vs WST (+2.5) Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 1? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Date" or "Dating" during Love Island E22? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Riyad Mahrez: 2+ shots on target Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Nicolás González: 1+ shots on target Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick" or "Hat Trick" during the Croatia v Jun 28 $5 $0 +1%
Eldor Shomurodov: 3+ shots Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ goals + assists Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-6.5) vs Fluxo (+6.5) Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Nikola Vlašić: 5+ shots Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FOKUS (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) BUY UCAM Esports Club 100¢ $5 8m
Nakashima vs. Jones: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 35m
Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 57m
Endrick: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 57m
Bruno Guimarães: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Marin Cilic advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentleme BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Mandatory (-2.5) vs Beşiktaş Esports (+2.5) BUY Mandatory 100¢ $5 4h
KPL Indo Nepal T20: RML Sports Academy India vs Chinnamasta Lions - Co BUY Yes 99¢ $5 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Completed Match: Taylor Fritz vs Jack Draper BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Coppa il Mondo T10: Rising Star Verola vs Cividate - Team Top Batter D BUY No 99¢ $5 6h
Muller vs. Paul: Set 3 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 7h
Mochizuki vs. Basing: Set 3 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 7h
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E6 S9? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 9h
ECS Bulgaria: Pak Falcon CC Vihren vs Young Bulgarian Stars BUY Pak Falcon CC Vihren 100¢ $5 10h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 11h
AS FAR to score first vs. UnionTouargaSports? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 12h
Will Fenerbahçe Beko win Turkey BSL? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 12h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Will the announcers say "Shoulder to shoulder" during the Panama vs En BUY No 99¢ $5 15h
Will "Trillion" or "Trillionaire" be in the headlines this week? BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 20h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 20h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: METANOIA WOLVES (-3.5) vs Guara Esports (+3.5) BUY Guara Esports 100¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: AC Goianiense 2 - 0 AA Ponte Preta? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 22h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Fluxo (-3.5) vs UNO MILLE (+3.5) BUY UNO MILLE 100¢ $5 23h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: UNO MILLE (-6.5) vs Fluxo (+6.5) BUY UNO MILLE 100¢ $5 23h
Will the announcers say "Sub" or "Substitution" 10+ times during the S BUY Yes 100¢ $5 23h
Will the announcers say "History" during the South Africa vs Canada FI BUY Yes 99¢ $5 24h
Will the announcers say "Equalize" or "Equalizer" during the South Afr BUY Yes 100¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.97 · official $9.97 (match) · 3500 history records