Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:35:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C2 0xc271…ee63 crypto 882 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$364 (+1%) realized +$364 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%544W / 337L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$115
14 days−$138
30 days−$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$566
other 0% −$3
weather 0% −$12
tech 0% −$6
sports 0% $0
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -12.4% -20.7% 56% 37% -14.5%
≤30d 424 -9.5% -18.1% 57% 40% -13.5%
≤90d 806 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 38% -11.9%
all 881 -5.5% -14.5% 62% 38% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 38% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 24% -20.1%
15% -30.2% 16% -27.8%
20% -37.0% 12% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$18 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$364
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses544 / 337
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)881 / 882
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 881 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$9 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$32 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$9 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $124 +$99 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$7 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $46 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $107 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $93 +$121 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$26 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $230 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $229 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$11 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$14 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$8 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.47 · official $0.47 (match) · 3500 history records