Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:13:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C2 0xc276…4cba other 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%61W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$3
14 days−$9
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$5
other 36% +$3
politics 13% +$1
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.7% -8.0% 60% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 30 +67.6% +51.6% 40% 7% -10.0%
≤90d 43 +47.2% +33.2% 47% 7% -9.7%
all 147 +14.5% +3.6% 41% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 4% -9.7%
10% -6.3% 3% -18.4%
15% -15.4% 3% -26.2%
20% -23.7% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses61 / 86
Open positions3
Markets (closed)147 / 150
History coverage467d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 55¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $166 −$6 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $84 +$2 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $105 +$4 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +8%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $83 −$5 -6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $111 −$6 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $96 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +42%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $100 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $16 −$1 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $99 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $101 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $100 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $82 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $9 −$1 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $35 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $4 $0 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $5 −$1 -26%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $100 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $100 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $195 +$22 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $89 +$8 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $98 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $99 +$14 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $109 −$27 -25%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $93 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $7 $0 +2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $676 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $653 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $19 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $650 +$3 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jan 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $22 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Dec 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 05 $7 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $101 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $72 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $48 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $21 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $25 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $64 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 58¢ $85 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 58¢ $12 35h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $23 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $23 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $39 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $38 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $98 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $98 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $34 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $24 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $89 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $34 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $56 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.31 · official $102.06 (match) · 529 history records