Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc277…b59b crypto 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 692d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,620 (-66%) realized −$4,620 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%48W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days−$3
14 days+$5
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$3,970
other 20% −$265
crypto 11% +$23
sports 10% −$251
culture 2% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +16.0% +5.0% 56% 54% -9.8%
≤30d 55 +14.5% +3.6% 55% 53% -16.5%
≤90d 56 +12.4% +1.7% 54% 52% -29.0%
all 101 -0.7% -10.1% 48% 47% -68.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 47% -68.9%
10% -18.7% 47% -71.9%
15% -26.6% 44% -74.6%
20% -33.8% 41% -77.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$106 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

692d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,620
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses48 / 53
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage692d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$25 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$25 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$15 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$15 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$20 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$15 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $64 −$62 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$45 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$32 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$16 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$20 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$14 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$13 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$7 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$8 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $14 −$8 -55%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 310 history records