Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C2 0xc278…a116 sports 237 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$793 (-10%) realized −$701 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate26%62W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day35.8pace
Fees−$246est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$465
14 days−$457
30 days−$934
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$899
other 3% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -43.3% -48.7% 25% 21% -32.9%
≤30d 239 -17.4% -25.3% 26% 20% -19.5%
≤90d 239 -17.4% -25.3% 26% 20% -19.5%
all 239 -17.4% -25.3% 26% 20% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 20% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 14% -27.2%
15% -39.0% 10% -34.2%
20% -44.9% 8% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized−$701
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses62 / 177
Est. fees paid−$246
Open positions111
Markets (closed)239 / 237
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day35.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 111 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $39 $40 +$2 (+4%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 25¢ $57 $37 −$20 (-35%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins San Francisco Giants 44¢ 44¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 37¢ 36¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Cleveland Guardians 43¢ 42¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers 45¢ 44¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ 44¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 36¢ 34¢ $25 $24 −$2 (-7%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-8%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Cincinnati Reds 35¢ 34¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will BNB reach $1500 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+154%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 45¢ 56¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+26%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+160%)
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? Yes 43¢ 39¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $29 $2 −$27 (-92%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 54¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? Yes 25¢ 13¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary Jun 20 $0 $0 +138%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary elec Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jeremy Swayman win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? Jun 20 $0 $0 -200%
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chris Carr win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 20 $1 −$1 -200%
Will Gregg Kirkpatrick win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primar Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $5 +$4 +86%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $5 −$1 -13%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $5 $0 -6%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $40 +$3 +7%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $47 −$23 -48%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $36 +$11 +31%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $23 −$6 -25%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $38 −$12 -32%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $32 −$16 -50%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $45 +$20 +45%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $26 −$17 -66%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $13 −$6 -42%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $26 −$1 -6%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $25 +$25 +100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $5 −$2 -45%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $57 +$6 +11%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $25 +$5 +19%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $24 +$6 +23%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $61 −$3 -5%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $27 −$24 -89%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $18 +$2 +11%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 16 $56 −$8 -14%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $28 −$1 -5%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $56 +$1 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $28 −$2 -6%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $37 −$17 -46%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $86 −$14 -16%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $71 +$3 +4%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $30 −$18 -58%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $68 +$8 +11%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $36 −$8 -24%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $28 −$26 -95%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $64 −$37 -58%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $35 −$8 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $26 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 37¢ $26 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $26 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 43¢ $26 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 45¢ $26 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $26 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL Cincinnati Reds 34¢ $12 3h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $26 3h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 98¢ $9 40h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $4 42h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 52¢ $5 46h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 43¢ $5 47h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 43¢ $5 47h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $5 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $5 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $5 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 54¢ $5 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $5 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 62¢ $18 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 45¢ $13 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 44¢ $24 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 5¢ $15 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $5 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 60¢ $35 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 46¢ $5 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 34¢ $23 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $11 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 46¢ $12 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 40¢ $24 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328.36 · official $327.93 (match) · 3500 history records