Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C2 0xc278…a03e sports 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$74 (+1%) realized +$126 · open −$52
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%42W / 24L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$240
7 days+$196
14 days+$230
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$168
sports 33% −$240
crypto 6% +$247
politics 2% +$7
world 1% +$3
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% −$5
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +30.1% +17.7% 69% 69% -5.0%
≤30d 66 +20.1% +8.6% 64% 64% -4.8%
≤90d 66 +20.1% +8.6% 64% 64% -4.8%
all 66 +20.1% +8.6% 64% 64% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 64% -4.8%
10% -1.8% 56% -13.9%
15% -11.3% 41% -22.2%
20% -20.0% 35% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$54 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$2,277
Realized+$126
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses42 / 24
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions33
Markets (closed)66 / 99
History coverage8d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $400 $463 +$63 (+16%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $400 $398 −$2 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $280 $354 +$74 (+27%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 71¢ 68¢ $158 $153 −$6 (-4%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 26¢ $359 $144 −$216 (-60%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 78¢ $126 $132 +$6 (+5%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 89¢ 99¢ $116 $129 +$14 (+12%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 68¢ 75¢ $80 $88 +$8 (+10%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 77¢ 88¢ $72 $81 +$10 (+14%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Yes 44¢ 55¢ $49 $60 +$12 (+24%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? No 86¢ 90¢ $47 $49 +$2 (+4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 58¢ 48¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-16%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 90¢ 91¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 35¢ 26¢ $28 $21 −$7 (-26%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 60¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 72¢ 99¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+38%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 89¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 73¢ 78¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 97¢ $9 $12 +$2 (+26%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 79¢ 90¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+14%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 78¢ 98¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+25%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 91¢ 96¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 55¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 71¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $384 −$275 -72%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $16 +$5 +32%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $20 +$30 +146%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Ayla Aksu Jun 21 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $333 +$167 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $311 +$237 +76%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $21 +$27 +129%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 20 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $646 +$78 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $42 +$14 +34%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $199 −$197 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $230 +$142 +62%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$16 +79%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $35 +$36 +101%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $27 +$10 +36%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $41 +$7 +17%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $54 +$35 +65%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $279 −$279 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $37 +$39 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $86 +$26 +30%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $6 +$8 +134%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $5 +$15 +291%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $41 +$42 +101%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $27 +$6 +24%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $5 +$23 +442%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $46 +$28 +61%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $35 +$29 +83%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $61 +$61 +101%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $54 +$70 +129%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $79 +$26 +32%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $36 +$38 +105%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$46 +76%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $39 +$37 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$3 +40%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $52 +$9 +17%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $55 +$19 +35%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $19 −$12 -66%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $76 +$36 +48%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $26 +$48 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $402 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $402 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $109 41h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 71¢ $13 2d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 71¢ $5 2d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 71¢ $28 2d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 71¢ $24 2d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 71¢ $2 2d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 71¢ $2 2d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 71¢ $2 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Ayla Aksu BUY Ayla Aksu 29¢ $15 2d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 40¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 77¢ $72 2d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 71¢ $81 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $127 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 29¢ $14 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $228 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $333 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $38 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 3d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 43¢ $21 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $3 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $384 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $199 3d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $306 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $192 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $646 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $311 4d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $19 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,276.92 · official $2,265.41 (match) · 180 history records