Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:26:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C2 0xc278…e91f sports 275 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$743 (+12%) realized +$746 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%134W / 138L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$68
14 days+$101
30 days+$357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$593
politics 6% +$19
other 2% +$29
crypto 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -7.8% -16.6% 43% 39% -19.0%
≤30d 133 +16.2% +5.1% 47% 41% +5.7%
≤90d 211 +16.3% +5.2% 49% 46% +3.8%
all 272 +11.6% +1.0% 49% 42% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 42% +2.3%
10% -8.7% 38% -7.5%
15% -17.5% 35% -16.4%
20% -25.6% 32% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$746
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses134 / 138
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions2
Markets (closed)272 / 275
History coverage150d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $78 $79 +$1 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 50¢ $68 $66 −$2 (-3%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 50¢ $46 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Sho Shimabukuro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Who wins the t Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$3 -5%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $7 +$8 +114%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $1 +$5 +388%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $10 +$15 +145%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Who wins the tos Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$14 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $50 +$4 +7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $5 +$4 +71%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $10 −$9 -98%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Who wins the t Jun 13 $11 +$10 +91%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $15 +$8 +52%
Alexander Bublik vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Mattia Bellucci vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$8 +161%
Ben Shelton vs. Marcos Giron: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$7 +134%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Kamil Majchrzak: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Jiri Lehecka vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Benjamin Bonzi vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $69 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $79 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $46 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $56 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $51 17h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $49 17h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 16¢ $2 17h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 33¢ $10 17h
Frances Tiafoe vs. Sho Shimabukuro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 46¢ $10 17h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 11¢ $10 17h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Who wins the t BUY India 50¢ $2 22h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Who wins the t BUY India 50¢ $5 22h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Who wins the t BUY India 50¢ $5 22h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Who wins the t BUY India 50¢ $3 22h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Who wins the t BUY India 50¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 25h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 32¢ $5 39h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 36¢ $10 40h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 20¢ $1 40h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Shuai Zhang 29¢ $5 42h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 44¢ $5 42h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 42¢ $5 42h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $7 2d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 54¢ $5 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 12¢ $5 2d
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 36¢ $5 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 37¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 39¢ $10 2d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 41¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.49 · official $244.49 (match) · 781 history records