Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C2
0xc278…3144
sports · 304 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$64 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$58 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$219
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses158 / 133
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions12
Markets (closed)291 / 304
History coverage90d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 12 History 291 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days−$174
14 days−$346
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 93¢ 96¢ $41 $43 +$2 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? No 75¢ 94¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? No 87¢ 97¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card) Daniel Santos 71¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets New York Yankees 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Ukraine be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in May 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Paris: Anastasia Zakharova vs Katie Boulter Katie Boulter 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Alina Korneeva Alina Korneeva 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians Punjab Kings 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $20 +$8 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$3 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 −$4 -24%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$1 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $20 +$12 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +35%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $23 +$19 +83%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $24 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $25 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +22%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $21 −$21 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $55 +$1 +3%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $12 +$6 +48%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $5 −$3 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $13 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $36 −$22 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in July 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$6 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in July 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$2 -19%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 09 $20 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$16 +308%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $10 +$12 +119%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qu Jun 08 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 08 $30 +$9 +31%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 08 $19 +$11 +57%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 68% −$93
world 15% +$181
other 11% +$112
weather 2% −$13
crypto 2% −$124
tech 1% +$17
politics 1% +$8
culture 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 93¢ $41 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 100¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 66¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 81¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 58¢ $12 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 70¢ $20 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $10 6h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $16 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $15 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 74¢ $15 14h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $15 15h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 26¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $32 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $15 16h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $12 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 59¢ $19 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $20 20h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 97¢ $32 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $28 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 53¢ $7 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 27h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 18¢ $5 27h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 80¢ $25 29h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $20 36h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 66¢ $10 36h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $10 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 77¢ $10 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -8.5% -17.2% 48% 45% -19.3%
≤30d 206 -5.3% -14.3% 51% 48% -9.6%
≤90d 291 -3.2% -12.4% 54% 49% -8.9%
all 291 -3.2% -12.4% 54% 49% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 49% -8.9%
10% -20.8% 37% -17.6%
15% -28.4% 31% -25.6%
20% -35.4% 22% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.85 · official $218.85 (match) · 683 history records