Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc27b…0ae4 crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$440 (-18%) realized −$429 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$540
other 18% +$50
sports 12% +$78
crypto 5% −$10
politics 3% −$8
weather 0% −$11
finance 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +52.2% +37.7% 100% 100% +37.7%
≤30d 5 +3.5% -6.4% 40% 40% -14.0%
≤90d 29 -5.4% -14.5% 55% 41% -26.8%
all 29 -5.4% -14.5% 55% 41% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 41% -26.8%
10% -22.6% 28% -33.8%
15% -30.1% 17% -40.2%
20% -37.0% 10% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$54 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$429
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage91d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 77¢ $119 $119 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $32 $22 −$10 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $20 +$39 +194%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 29 $34 −$33 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $246 −$71 -29%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 20 $64 +$22 +35%
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? May 15 $71 −$8 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 22? Apr 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 20 $15 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 17 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 17 $10 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $129 +$31 +24%
Barcelona Open: Mariano Navone vs Andrey Rublev Apr 14 $135 +$23 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $119 +$20 +17%
Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score Apr 11 $102 +$17 +17%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $641 −$534 -83%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $104 −$2 -2%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $77 +$27 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 02 $3 +$5 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 02 $22 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 02 $17 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 02 $14 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 02 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $290 +$17 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $119 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $34 1h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 65¢ $101 21d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda SELL Zachary Svajda 99¢ $59 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 33¢ $20 29d
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 5¢ $34 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $103 29d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $33 36d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $86 38d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 92¢ $86 38d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $64 44d
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? SELL No 51¢ $64 44d
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY No 55¢ $71 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $71 50d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 22? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $12 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $4 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $7 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $15 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $13 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $10 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 72d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $160 72d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $160 72d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $129 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.59 · official $172.59 (match) · 117 history records