Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc27e…009d other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$50 (-18%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$8
sports 13% −$36
world 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -20.0% -27.6% 46% 46% -30.1%
≤30d 13 -20.0% -27.6% 46% 46% -30.1%
≤90d 13 -20.0% -27.6% 46% 46% -30.1%
all 13 -20.0% -27.6% 46% 46% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 46% -30.1%
10% -34.5% 46% -36.8%
15% -40.9% 38% -42.9%
20% -46.7% 23% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage7d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 +$23 +56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$8 +24%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$19 +157%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$5 +41%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 6h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 7h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $41 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $32 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 35h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $33 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $12 6d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.28 · official $30.28 (match) · 30 history records