Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:54:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc283…f286 other 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,041 (-7%) realized −$2,036 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%83W / 72L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$962
other 41% −$1,227
crypto 0% −$5
world 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -8.9% -17.6% 44% 39% -9.6%
≤30d 30 -1.3% -10.7% 57% 50% -11.4%
≤90d 101 -9.9% -18.5% 55% 48% -7.9%
all 155 -9.1% -17.8% 54% 48% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 48% -16.0%
10% -25.6% 40% -24.0%
15% -32.8% 31% -31.4%
20% -39.4% 24% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$122 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$2,036
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses83 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions2
Markets (closed)155 / 158
History coverage167d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$39 -77%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$29 -56%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 −$36 -24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$5 -7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $101 +$91 +90%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $31 −$3 -10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $132 +$10 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $161 −$160 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $203 −$163 -80%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $201 +$34 +17%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $101 +$40 +40%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 23 $51 +$51 +101%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $101 +$36 +36%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $101 +$8 +8%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $101 +$20 +20%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $51 −$35 -69%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 20 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $61 +$59 +97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 18 $101 −$43 -42%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $303 −$178 -59%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $101 +$77 +76%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $202 +$105 +52%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $201 −$138 -68%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $302 +$98 +32%
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs EDward Gaming (BO7) - Honor of Kings Challe May 14 $4 +$2 +49%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $301 +$25 +8%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $291 +$42 +14%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $201 +$24 +12%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 12 $101 +$24 +24%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $604 −$478 -79%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $121 −$119 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier May 04 $28 −$28 -99%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifie May 04 $131 −$111 -84%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $30 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 43¢ $71 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL 17¢ $22 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 36¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 74¢ $49 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $66 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $71 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $101 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $101 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $102 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 60¢ $51 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $101 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $28 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $102 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 11¢ $27 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.72 · official $64.72 (match) · 369 history records