Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:12:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C2 0xc288…b345 sports 260 markets active 2h ago coverage 566d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate73%188W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$28
other 9% +$11
politics 5% +$4
economics 0% $0
culture 0% +$5
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤30d 4 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 0% -5.1%
≤90d 19 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 5% -8.8%
all 259 -2.5% -11.8% 73% 54% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 54% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 44% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 27% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

566d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses188 / 71
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)259 / 260
History coverage566d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $86 $87 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 29 $83 +$4 +5%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 24 $78 +$4 +5%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $19 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $163 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $71 +$1 +2%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $69 +$3 +4%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 14 $439 +$2 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 08 $133 +$2 +2%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $481 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $95 $0 +0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $218 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $296 +$1 +0%
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $326 +$1 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $269 +$1 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $153 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $142 +$1 +1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $281 +$1 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $60 $0 +0%
Bills vs. Dolphins Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex de Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bucks vs. Hornets Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Heat Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
South Florida vs. Navy Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Heat Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
White Sox vs. Rays Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Open de Moselle: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Vitaliy Sachko Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Hellenic Championship: Reilly Opelka vs Vit Kopriva Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Mi Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2025-10-10? Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $20 +$5 +27%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 09 $159 +$1 +0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 06 $81 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jan 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $82 $0 +0%
Will the US strike another country first? Jan 23 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $51 $0 +0%
Will the US strike Mexico next? Jan 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 07 $29 $0 +0%
Warriors vs. Nets Dec 30 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $86 1h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 100¢ $87 1h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $83 5d
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 95¢ $78 9d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $33 34d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 37d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $3 37d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $8 37d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY Team Falcons 86¢ $9 37d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $7 37d
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY No 98¢ $71 43d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $69 46d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $69 47d
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 100¢ $68 52d
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $66 58d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 62d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 93¢ $61 62d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $28 62d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $39 62d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $67 65d
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 72d
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $22 72d
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $67 72d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $66 72d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $66 72d
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 72d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 72d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $65 73d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 73d
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $36 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.94 · official $86.94 (match) · 819 history records