Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:17:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C2 0xc289…ab37 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$13,151 (+34%) realized +$13,445 · open −$294

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown17%max

Avg bet$3,859per market

Trades / day8.3pace

Fees−$263est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$9,706now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)-2.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+7.9%	-2.4%	71%	71%	+25.8%
≤30d	7	+7.9%	-2.4%	71%	71%	+25.8%
≤90d	7	+7.9%	-2.4%	71%	71%	+25.8%
all	7	+7.9%	-2.4%	71%	71%	+25.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.3 tr/day

realistic slip~14%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-2.4%	71%	+25.8%
10% ← realistic here	-11.7%	71%	+13.7%
15%	-20.2%	43%	+2.8%
20%	-28.1%	29%	-7.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 60% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +39% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2,582 vs −$1,100 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.87 per $1 lost it wins $5.87

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$9,706

Realized+$13,445

Unrealized−$294

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Est. fees paid−$263

Open positions2

Markets (closed)7 / 10

History coverage1d

Avg bet$3,859

Trades / day8.3

Drawdown17%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	Over	70¢	69¢	$5,000	$4,964	−$36 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	68¢	64¢	$5,000	$4,743	−$257 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$206	−$200	-97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$2,026	−$2,000	-99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$5,048	+$2,305	+46%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$5,054	+$2,758	+55%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$5,075	+$4,925	+97%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 23	$5,033	+$1,377	+27%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$5,036	+$1,543	+31%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	6¢	$206	1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	57¢	$2,026	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$5,048	2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	70¢	$5,045	2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	68¢	$5,048	6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$5,054	24h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$5,075	24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY	40¢	$1,018	26h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	78¢	$5,033	26h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	76¢	$5,036	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,706.22 · official $9,780.46 (match) · 15 history records