Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc289…04f1 world 319 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$29 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate75%208W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$52
14 days−$59
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$52
crypto 14% +$7
other 13% −$47
sports 11% −$19
finance 5% +$2
politics 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -5.7% -14.7% 65% 38% -16.7%
≤30d 218 -0.1% -9.6% 74% 37% -9.7%
≤90d 278 -1.1% -10.5% 75% 33% -9.6%
all 278 -1.1% -10.5% 75% 33% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 33% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 17% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 12% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses208 / 70
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions41
Markets (closed)278 / 319
History coverage56d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 278 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 74¢ 81¢ $43 $47 +$4 (+10%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 74¢ 50¢ $19 $13 −$6 (-32%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+5%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 82¢ 88¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? No 95¢ 97¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 76¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 58¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 89¢ 93¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 72¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-19%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 83¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 91¢ 93¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 89¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 95¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 84¢ 85¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $10 $0 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $2 $0 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $41 −$16 -39%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $12 +$2 +18%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -96%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +5%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$3 +22%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +128%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $22 −$7 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $28 +$1 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $9 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +96%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $46 −$17 -37%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $33 +$4 +11%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$8 +13%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL No 2¢ $0 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 72¢ $2 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $2 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 70¢ $2 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 78¢ $2 6h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 82¢ $2 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $2 7h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 33¢ $2 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 10h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.40 · official $255.87 (match) · 2766 history records