Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc28a…fbad other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$91 (-18%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$136
7 days−$136
14 days−$166
30 days−$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$105
sports 30% −$50
crypto 5% −$11
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-74.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 9 -71.6% -74.3% 11% 11% -89.9%
≤90d 9 -71.6% -74.3% 11% 11% -89.9%
all 9 -71.6% -74.3% 11% 11% -89.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.3% 11% -89.9%
10% -76.8% 11% -90.9%
15% -79.0% 11% -91.8%
20% -81.1% 11% -92.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 23
History coverage14d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $38 −$37 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $50 −$49 -98%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $8 +$13 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY 22¢ $88 8m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 13¢ $38 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AN BUY 10¢ $50 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY $40 47h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND BUY 11¢ $10 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY $20 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a d BUY $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY $15 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 16¢ $8 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND W BUY $18 5d
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes $3 8d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 21¢ $5 9d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND BUY $15 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down $1 11d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $19 11d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY $21 11d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 11d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 17¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $85.97 · 35 history records