Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:53:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc28c…6fb2 crypto 714 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$674 (-5%) realized −$663 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate68%481W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days−$187
14 days−$175
30 days−$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$387
other 46% −$475
sports 7% +$26
world 1% −$67
politics 0% +$10
finance 0% +$51
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -14.4% -22.6% 49% 39% -14.1%
≤30d 178 -10.4% -19.0% 57% 44% -15.6%
≤90d 712 -2.3% -11.6% 68% 44% -14.5%
all 712 -2.3% -11.6% 68% 44% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 44% -14.5%
10% -20.0% 29% -22.7%
15% -27.8% 18% -30.2%
20% -34.9% 11% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$663
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses481 / 231
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)712 / 714
History coverage84d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 712 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $140 $117 −$23 (-17%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 32¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$14 -54%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $148 −$105 -71%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $66 +$102 +155%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $71 +$37 +52%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $136 +$31 +23%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $79 +$80 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $154 −$103 -67%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$5 +57%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $332 +$10 +3%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$12 -57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $141 +$70 +50%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 −$10 -70%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $121 +$26 +22%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 −$11 -93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 +$32 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 +$4 +17%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 −$2 -15%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$34 +68%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $37 +$18 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 $0 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$44 -69%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $133 −$133 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $91 +$85 +93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$73 +239%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $82 −$73 -90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 +$2 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$24 -80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 −$58 -71%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $58 +$33 +57%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17 −$16 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $11 −$8 -71%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $28 −$20 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 55m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $142 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $169 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 19¢ $41 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $82 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $119 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 69¢ $26 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $33 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $16 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $35 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 23h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $152 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.06 · official $159.06 (match) · 1811 history records