Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C2 0xc28e…bc55 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$357 (-14%) realized −$144 · open −$213
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$213
sports 31% −$334
crypto 7% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-42.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -77.2% -79.4% 0% 0% -66.7%
≤30d 7 -35.9% -42.0% 29% 29% -51.5%
≤90d 7 -35.9% -42.0% 29% 29% -51.5%
all 7 -35.9% -42.0% 29% 29% -51.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.0% 29% -51.5%
10% -47.5% 29% -56.1%
15% -52.6% 14% -60.4%
20% -57.3% 14% -64.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$117 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$1,322
Realized−$144
Unrealized−$213
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage14d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,135 $956 −$179 (-16%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $171 −$29 (-14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $134 −$73 -54%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $404 −$400 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 +$114 +112%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $93 −$28 -31%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $137 +$30 +22%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,030 1m
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 11m
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 12m
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 40¢ $51 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 45¢ $51 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 68¢ $101 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 73¢ $101 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $101 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $215 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 46¢ $102 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 1¢ $10 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 1¢ $10 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 1¢ $10 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 1¢ $11 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $50 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 1¢ $1 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 86¢ $100 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 87¢ $10 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 64¢ $25 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $51 13d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $154 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,321.64 · official $1,321.64 (match) · 48 history records