Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:59:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc290…02af world 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate27%19W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$9
world 33% −$10
sports 21% −$3
politics 8% +$5
finance 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 30 -2.3% -11.6% 30% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 40 -1.1% -10.5% 32% 2% -9.8%
all 70 -0.7% -10.2% 27% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses19 / 51
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage333d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $77 $78 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $75 +$2 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $77 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $159 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $353 −$4 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $84 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $75 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $83 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $75 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $84 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $83 −$7 -9%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $83 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $94 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $89 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $82 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $119 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $57 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $83 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $170 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $103 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $84 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $84 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $83 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $84 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $10 −$7 -65%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $99 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 22 $53 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $94 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $214 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $18 +$5 +30%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 24 $53 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $144 −$11 -8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,285 −$3 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $551 +$1 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $554 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 30 $70 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 29 $71 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Jul 29 $59 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $2 $0 -6%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 29 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $77 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $11 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $66 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $75 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $83 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $83 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $43 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $32 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $75 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $75 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $76 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $84 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $84 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $27 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $48 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $75 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $70 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $6 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $76 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $30 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $54 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $64 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $75 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.93 · official $77.70 (match) · 251 history records