Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:49:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C2
0xc291…30ab
other · 60 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$674 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$942 · open +$276
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9,908
Realized−$942
Unrealized+$276
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions42
Markets (closed)18 / 60
History coverage12d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 42 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$391
14 days−$942
30 days−$942
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 73¢ 98¢ $1,427 $1,901 +$475 (+33%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 81¢ $1,528 $1,478 −$50 (-3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 87¢ 88¢ $1,324 $1,325 +$1 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 89¢ $848 $883 +$36 (+4%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $628 $661 +$33 (+5%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 88¢ 91¢ $611 $635 +$24 (+4%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $275 $469 +$194 (+71%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? No 80¢ 80¢ $447 $447 +$0 (+0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $397 $429 +$32 (+8%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 78¢ 82¢ $270 $288 +$17 (+6%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 40¢ 19¢ $387 $181 −$207 (-53%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $106 $125 +$19 (+18%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 78¢ 84¢ $95 $102 +$7 (+8%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? Yes 43¢ 20¢ $221 $101 −$119 (-54%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? No 54¢ 60¢ $88 $97 +$8 (+10%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $88 $94 +$5 (+6%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 52¢ 20¢ $205 $81 −$124 (-61%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 4¢ 3¢ $94 $79 −$15 (-16%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) South Africa 73¢ 72¢ $72 $71 −$1 (-2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $55 $70 +$15 (+27%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $72 $69 −$3 (-5%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $54 $56 +$2 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $44 $47 +$3 (+7%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $32 $34 +$1 (+4%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Mexico 22¢ 22¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $28 +$14 +49%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $15 −$9 -58%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 12 $482 +$8 +2%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? Jun 11 $135 +$7 +5%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? Jun 11 $113 +$6 +5%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 10 $370 −$268 -72%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $494 −$182 -37%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $192 +$38 +20%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $152 +$30 +20%
Will Mongolia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $312 −$292 -94%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $501 +$70 +14%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $356 −$356 -100%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $164 +$16 +10%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $118 −$30 -26%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30? Jun 03 $336 +$17 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 32% −$188
tech 32% −$59
politics 28% −$81
sports 8% −$336
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $43 9m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 13m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $90 16m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $21 26m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $34 27m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $37 28m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $21 41m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $48 41m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $30 59m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $74 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $340 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $284 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $168 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $355 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $54 1h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $16 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $184 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $51 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $19 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $191 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $37 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $18 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $26 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $231 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $59 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $23 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $51 4h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $35 4h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $23 4h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $60 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -37.7% -43.6% 50% 20% -32.7%
≤30d 18 -36.4% -42.4% 50% 22% -30.3%
≤90d 18 -36.4% -42.4% 50% 22% -30.3%
all 18 -36.4% -42.4% 50% 22% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.4% 22% -30.3%
10% ← realistic here -47.9% 6% -37.0%
15% -53.0% 6% -43.0%
20% -57.6% 0% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,908.45 · official $9,907.87 (match) · 376 history records